TX-32 House Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, Jace Yarbrough (R) trades at 78% and Dan Barrios (D) at 32%.
Kalshi prices, updated Nov 3, 11:05 PM ET
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Jace Yarbrough (R) |
78%
|
−8 pts |
| Dan Barrios (D) |
32%
|
+16 pts |
20K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 66K in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jace Yarbrough (R) | 78% | 73% |
| Dan Barrios (D) | 32% | 28% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Dan Barrios (D) contract: If the House member sworn in for TX-32 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
More live markets
- Congress balance of power Democrats sweep 99.6%
- Senate control Democratic Party 99.5%
- House control Democratic Party 99.7%
- Texas Senate race James Talarico (D) 99.7%
- Texas Governor race Gina Hinojosa (D) 99.8%
- TX-09 House race Leticia Gutierrez (D) 95%
- Prediction markets in Texas: rules and platforms
- All 2026 midterm markets