Texas Senate Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, James Talarico (D) trades at 62% and Ken Paxton (R) at 39%.
Kalshi prices, updated Oct 19, 12:05 PM ET
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) |
62%
|
0 |
| Ken Paxton (R) |
39%
|
−1 pt |
523K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 30.4M in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 62% | 63% |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 39% | 39% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Ken Paxton (R) contract: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
More live markets
- Congress balance of power Democrats sweep 63%
- Senate control Democratic Party 63%
- House control Democratic Party 90%
- Texas Governor race Greg Abbott (R) 76%
- Prediction markets in Texas: rules and platforms
- All 2026 midterm markets