AZ-01 House Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, Amish Shah (D) trades at 99.9% and Jay Feely (R) at 0.9%.
Kalshi prices, updated Nov 4, 4:35 PM ET
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Amish Shah (D) |
99.9%
|
+20 pts |
| Jay Feely (R) |
0.9%
|
−20 pts |
43K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 424K in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Amish Shah (D) | 99.9% | 99.4% |
| Jay Feely (R) | 0.9% | 0.5% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Amish Shah (D) contract: If the House member sworn in for AZ-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.