AZ-02 House Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, Jonathan Nez (D) trades at 69% and Eli Crane (R) at 37%.
Kalshi prices, updated Nov 4, 2:15 AM ET
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Nez (D) |
69%
|
+25 pts |
| Eli Crane (R) |
37%
|
−19 pts |
189K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 393K in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Nez (D) | 69% | 65% |
| Eli Crane (R) | 37% | 36% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Jonathan Nez (D) contract: If the House member sworn in for AZ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.