MT-01 House Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, Aaron Flint (R) trades at 54% and Sam Forstag (D) at 48%.
Kalshi prices, updated Oct 22, 3:05 AM ET. Prices may be delayed.
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) |
54%
|
−10 pts |
| Sam Forstag (D) |
48%
|
+10 pts |
80K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 630K in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) | 54% | 55% |
| Sam Forstag (D) | 48% | 46% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Sam Forstag (D) contract: If the House member sworn in for MT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
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