Minnesota Senate Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, Peggy Flanagan (D) trades at 85% and Michele Tafoya (R) at 13%.
Kalshi prices, updated Oct 19, 12:05 PM ET
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan (D) |
85%
|
−1 pt |
| Michele Tafoya (R) |
13%
|
−3 pts |
179K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 2.6M in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | 85% | 87% |
| Michele Tafoya (R) | 13% | 14% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Michele Tafoya (R) contract: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Minnesota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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