ME-02 House Race 2026: Live Market Odds
On Kalshi, Paul LePage (R) trades at 85% and Matt Dunlap (D) at 15%.
Kalshi prices, updated Nov 4, 2:15 AM ET
| Outcome | Chance | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage (R) |
85%
|
+27 pts |
| Matt Dunlap (D) |
15%
|
−27 pts |
197K contracts traded in the last 24 hours, 590K in total.
Same race on Polymarket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage (R) | 85% | 87% |
| Matt Dunlap (D) | 15% | 14% |
Shown for comparison. Polymarket's contract ends November 4, 2026; Kalshi's resolves by January 4, 2027.
Can you trade this in your state?
Yes, in Ohio. Kalshi lists this market and accepts customers in Ohio. Status in Ohio: Contested (Kalshi Injunction Denied). Prediction markets in Ohio.
How to read these prices
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means traders as a group put the chance at about 62%. Prices change with every trade.
How Kalshi settles it, Matt Dunlap (D) contract: If the House member sworn in for ME-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.